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Canadian Monthly Economic Growth (Q1'2023)
Canadian real GDP was flat in March. Service-producing industries were unchanged from the prior month which goods producing industries edged down 0.1 per cent. Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.6 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy rose 0.2 per cent in April.
GDP grew 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, following roughly zero growth in the previous quarter. Almost all of this growth was concentrated in the month of January. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.1 per cent while services-producing sectors rose 0.9 per cent. The public sector (educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration) was the largest contributor to growth for the third consecutive quarter. Exports rose 2.4 per cent in the first quarter, while imports rose just 0.2 per cent, spurring growth. Higher household spending on goods (1.5 per cent) and services (1.3 per cent) also pushed GDP upwards. Higher borrowing costs, meanwhile, caused housing investment to fall 3.9 per cent in the first quarter, with new construction (-6.0 per cent), renovations (-2.1 per cent), and ownership transfer costs (-1.5 per cent) all declining. Compensation of employees rose 1.7 per cent from the prior quarter, but disposable income nevertheless fell 1 per cent largely as a result of lower government transfers compared to last quarter.
Canadian GDP outpaced expectations in the first quarter, expanding 3.1 per cent on an annualized basis. Following over a year of rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, the economy remains robust in many areas. A burst of economic growth at the start of the year supported a high first quarter growth rate, but April's preliminary GDP estimate shows growth continuing into the second quarter. Although housing markets swooned in the immediate aftermath of rate hikes, in recent months they have shown signs of a solid recovery. At 5 per cent, the Canadian unemployment rate remains near record lows. Meanwhile, inflation remains hot, with the year-over-year rate increasing to 4.4 per cent in April from 4.3 per cent in March. These indicators will put some pressure on the central bank to potentially change course following its 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes as of January. The Bank's rate decision next Wednesday will need to balance persistently hot numbers with the risk of overtightening given the long lags of monetary policy.
GDP grew 0.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2023, following roughly zero growth in the previous quarter. Almost all of this growth was concentrated in the month of January. Goods-producing sectors rose 0.1 per cent while services-producing sectors rose 0.9 per cent. The public sector (educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration) was the largest contributor to growth for the third consecutive quarter. Exports rose 2.4 per cent in the first quarter, while imports rose just 0.2 per cent, spurring growth. Higher household spending on goods (1.5 per cent) and services (1.3 per cent) also pushed GDP upwards. Higher borrowing costs, meanwhile, caused housing investment to fall 3.9 per cent in the first quarter, with new construction (-6.0 per cent), renovations (-2.1 per cent), and ownership transfer costs (-1.5 per cent) all declining. Compensation of employees rose 1.7 per cent from the prior quarter, but disposable income nevertheless fell 1 per cent largely as a result of lower government transfers compared to last quarter.
Canadian GDP outpaced expectations in the first quarter, expanding 3.1 per cent on an annualized basis. Following over a year of rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, the economy remains robust in many areas. A burst of economic growth at the start of the year supported a high first quarter growth rate, but April's preliminary GDP estimate shows growth continuing into the second quarter. Although housing markets swooned in the immediate aftermath of rate hikes, in recent months they have shown signs of a solid recovery. At 5 per cent, the Canadian unemployment rate remains near record lows. Meanwhile, inflation remains hot, with the year-over-year rate increasing to 4.4 per cent in April from 4.3 per cent in March. These indicators will put some pressure on the central bank to potentially change course following its 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes as of January. The Bank's rate decision next Wednesday will need to balance persistently hot numbers with the risk of overtightening given the long lags of monetary policy.
Canadian Inflation (April 2023)
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.4 per cent on a year-over-year basis in April, a slight increase from the 4.3 per cent rate in March. Month over month, CPI rose 0.7 per cent, in large part due to higher gasoline prices, which jumped 6.3 per cent from last month. Shelter costs were up 4.9 per cent year over year, driven by much higher mortgage interest costs (up 28.5 per cent from last year) along with higher rents (up 6.1 per cent from April 2022). The homeowner's replacement cost, which tracks home prices, was up just 0.2 per cent year over year. Grocery prices were up 9.1 per cent year over year, down from 9.7 per cent last month. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.3 per cent year-over-year.
After rapid success in bringing down inflation since last fall, month-over-month CPI figures came in hotter than expected in April. Even after stripping out the large jump in gasoline prices, CPI rose 0.5 per cent from March, corresponding to a 6 per cent annualized rate, while food and shelter costs continue to rise faster than a 6 percent annualized rate. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, each fell on a year-over-year basis while rising month-over-month. Markets continue to expect the bank to hold its overnight rate steady at 4.5 per cent at their upcoming meeting on June 7th. However, in the context of a still strong labour market and the early signs of a rebound in the housing market, these CPI figures suggest that the Bank of Canada is still not entirely out of the woods on inflation.
After rapid success in bringing down inflation since last fall, month-over-month CPI figures came in hotter than expected in April. Even after stripping out the large jump in gasoline prices, CPI rose 0.5 per cent from March, corresponding to a 6 per cent annualized rate, while food and shelter costs continue to rise faster than a 6 percent annualized rate. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, each fell on a year-over-year basis while rising month-over-month. Markets continue to expect the bank to hold its overnight rate steady at 4.5 per cent at their upcoming meeting on June 7th. However, in the context of a still strong labour market and the early signs of a rebound in the housing market, these CPI figures suggest that the Bank of Canada is still not entirely out of the woods on inflation.
Canadian Employment (April 2023)
Canadian employment rose slightly to 20.13 million in April, up by 41,400 (0.2 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent, unchanged since December. Employment gains were concentrated in wholesale and retail trade (+24,000); transportation and warehousing (+17,000); and information, culture and recreation (+16,000). Average hourly wages were up 5.2 per cent from April of last year.
Employment in BC was little changed in April, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.78 million, while declining by 0.1 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.564 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5 per cent in BC and to 5.4 per cent in Metro Vancouver. The rise was driven both by a rise in labour force participation, but also an increase in the number of unemployed workers.
Employment in BC was little changed in April, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.78 million, while declining by 0.1 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.564 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5 per cent in BC and to 5.4 per cent in Metro Vancouver. The rise was driven both by a rise in labour force participation, but also an increase in the number of unemployed workers.
Canadian Housing Starts (April 2023)
Canadian housing starts rose 22 per cent to 261,559 units in April at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were up 0.5 per cent from April of 2022. Single-detached housing starts fell 4 per cent to 53,843 units, while multi-family and others rose 32 per cent to 207,715 (SAAR).
In British Columbia, starts rose by 18 per cent in April to 60,633 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 14 per cent m/m to 5,676 units while multi-family starts rose 21 per cent to 52,420 units. Starts in the province were 13 per cent above the levels from April 2022. Starts were up by 13k in Vancouver, while declining by 2.9k in Victoria and 1.8k in Kelowna. Starts in Abbotsford were flat month over month. The 6-month moving average trend rose 5.3 per cent to 51.2k in BC in November.
In British Columbia, starts rose by 18 per cent in April to 60,633 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts rose 14 per cent m/m to 5,676 units while multi-family starts rose 21 per cent to 52,420 units. Starts in the province were 13 per cent above the levels from April 2022. Starts were up by 13k in Vancouver, while declining by 2.9k in Victoria and 1.8k in Kelowna. Starts in Abbotsford were flat month over month. The 6-month moving average trend rose 5.3 per cent to 51.2k in BC in November.
Canadian Employment (April 2023)
Canadian employment rose slightly to 20.13 million in April, up by 41,400 (0.2 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent, unchanged since December. Employment gains were concentrated in wholesale and retail trade (+24,000); transportation and warehousing (+17,000); and information, culture and recreation (+16,000). Average hourly wages were up 5.2 per cent from April of last year.
Employment in BC was little changed in April, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.78 million, while declining by 0.1 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.564 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5 per cent in BC and to 5.4 per cent in Metro Vancouver. The rise was driven both by a rise in labour force participation, but also an increase in the number of unemployed workers.
Employment in BC was little changed in April, rising 0.1 per cent to 2.78 million, while declining by 0.1 per cent in Metro Vancouver to 1.564 million. The unemployment rate rose to 5 per cent in BC and to 5.4 per cent in Metro Vancouver. The rise was driven both by a rise in labour force participation, but also an increase in the number of unemployed workers.
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Canadian Monthly Real GDP Growth (February 2022)
Canadian real GDP inched up 0.1 per cent in February, following a 0.6 per cent jump in January. Both goods-producing and services-providing sectors of the economy grew 0.1 per cent. Growth was led by the public sector (+0.2 per cent), professional, scientific and technical services (+0.6 per cent), and construction activity (+0.3 per cent). Canadian real GDP is now roughly 3.4 per cent above its pre-pandemic, February 2020 level. Preliminary estimates suggest that output in the Canadian economy declined 0.1 per cent in March, implying an annualized growth rate of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter.
On the heels of unexpectedly high real GDP growth in January, February's low figure, alongside preliminary data indicating a slight contraction in March, appears more consistent with the Bank of Canada's expectations for slowing economic growth in 2023. Growth was softer than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, supporting the Bank of Canada's 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes, and ignoring January, this slowness appears to be continuing in February and March. Due to the long lag of monetary policy, the effects of last year's tightening are still working their way through the economy, and further slowing in GDP and the labour market is anticipated in the second half of 2023. This slowing of growth is likely good news for inflation, which has been trending close to the bank's 2 per cent target in recent months. The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is on June 7th.
On the heels of unexpectedly high real GDP growth in January, February's low figure, alongside preliminary data indicating a slight contraction in March, appears more consistent with the Bank of Canada's expectations for slowing economic growth in 2023. Growth was softer than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022, supporting the Bank of Canada's 'conditional pause' on further rate hikes, and ignoring January, this slowness appears to be continuing in February and March. Due to the long lag of monetary policy, the effects of last year's tightening are still working their way through the economy, and further slowing in GDP and the labour market is anticipated in the second half of 2023. This slowing of growth is likely good news for inflation, which has been trending close to the bank's 2 per cent target in recent months. The next Bank of Canada rate announcement is on June 7th.
Canadian Housing Starts (March 2023)
Canadian housing starts fell 11 per cent to 213,865 units in March at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts were down 12 per cent from March of 2022. Single-detached housing starts fell 12 per cent to 56,468 units, while multi-family and others fell 11 per cent to 157,395 (SAAR).
In British Columbia, starts rose by 35 per cent in March to 51,564 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 10 per cent m/m to 4,814 units while multi-family starts rose 49 per cent to 43,180 units. Starts in the province were 60 per cent above the levels from March 2022. Starts were up by 18k in Vancouver and 0.3k in Victoria, while declining by 2.6k in Kelowna and 0.8k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend fell 0.7 per cent to 48.6k in BC in November.
In British Columbia, starts rose by 35 per cent in March to 51,564 units SAAR in all areas of the province. In areas in the province with 10,000 or more residents, single-detached starts fell 10 per cent m/m to 4,814 units while multi-family starts rose 49 per cent to 43,180 units. Starts in the province were 60 per cent above the levels from March 2022. Starts were up by 18k in Vancouver and 0.3k in Victoria, while declining by 2.6k in Kelowna and 0.8k in Abbotsford. The 6-month moving average trend fell 0.7 per cent to 48.6k in BC in November.
Canadian Inflation (March 2023)
Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in March, a decrease from the 5.2 per cent rate in February. This large drop was mostly due to base year effects; the CPI was rising quickly this month last year and fuel prices in particular are substantially down from a year ago. Grocery prices continue to rise quickly, up 9.7 per cent from last year, following seven consecutive months of double-digit increases. Mortgage interest costs were up 26.4 per cent year-over-year, the fastest pace on record, as Canadians renewed or initiated higher-rate mortgages. In contrast, the Homeowner's Replacement Cost, which tracks home prices, continued to slow, increasing 1.7 per cent year-over-year in March, down from 3.3 per cent in February. Month-over-month, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, prices were up 0.1 per cent in March. In BC, consumer prices rose 4.7 per cent year-over-year.
There continue to be encouraging signs that the bout of rapid price appreciation that began in February of last year is waning. Although food prices and mortgage interest costs continue to rise quickly, most other categories in the index are trending back toward normal price trends. Indeed, excluding mortgage costs, the year-over-year change in CPI was just 3.6 per cent. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, each ticked downwards for a fourth month in a row. The three-month annualized change in seasonally-adjusted CPI is now well within the bank's 1-3 per cent target range, hitting 2.1 per cent in March. Still, although year-over-year price appreciation may be moderating, at 4.3 per cent it is still well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. While the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 4.5 per cent for a second consecutive meeting in April, the Bank could change course if inflation does not continue to cool or if the economy dips toward recession.
There continue to be encouraging signs that the bout of rapid price appreciation that began in February of last year is waning. Although food prices and mortgage interest costs continue to rise quickly, most other categories in the index are trending back toward normal price trends. Indeed, excluding mortgage costs, the year-over-year change in CPI was just 3.6 per cent. The Bank of Canada's measures of core inflation, which strip out volatile components, each ticked downwards for a fourth month in a row. The three-month annualized change in seasonally-adjusted CPI is now well within the bank's 1-3 per cent target range, hitting 2.1 per cent in March. Still, although year-over-year price appreciation may be moderating, at 4.3 per cent it is still well above the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. While the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 4.5 per cent for a second consecutive meeting in April, the Bank could change course if inflation does not continue to cool or if the economy dips toward recession.
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement - April 12, 2023
The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 4.5 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted that demand in Canada still exceeds supply and labour markets remain tight and that first quarter economic growth looks stronger than expected. However, the bank expects consumption growth to slow this year as households renew mortgages at higher rates and growth in exports and investment will decline as the US economy slows substantially in coming months. On inflation, the Bank expects headline CPI inflation to fall to 3 per cent in the middle of this year before declining gradually to 2 per cent by the end of 2024. However, the Bank warned getting inflation back to 2 per cent will be challenging given still high inflation expectations, elevated service sector prices and strong wage growth.
The Bank of Canada has moved to the sidelines while it judges the past year's impact of rate increases on inflation. Several factors point to inflation beginning to normalize this year. Barring a significant shift, gas prices are starting to subtract from year-over-year CPI inflation and raw materials and shipping costs should benefit from a downtrend in global commodity prices and a normalization of supply chains. The open question for the economy remains whether a recession is likely to occur this year. Given the pace and magnitude of tightening by the Bank of Canada, and signals from traditional recession warning tools like the slope of the yield curve, the recession probability remains elevated, particularly given added uncertainty stemming from failures in the US banking sector. However, growth has remained firmer than expected and the economy continues to create jobs at a robust pace. Still, high interest rates will start to drag on the broader economy this year and slower growth and significant progress on inflation should keep the Bank sidelined with the possibility of a rate cut in early 2024.
The Bank of Canada has moved to the sidelines while it judges the past year's impact of rate increases on inflation. Several factors point to inflation beginning to normalize this year. Barring a significant shift, gas prices are starting to subtract from year-over-year CPI inflation and raw materials and shipping costs should benefit from a downtrend in global commodity prices and a normalization of supply chains. The open question for the economy remains whether a recession is likely to occur this year. Given the pace and magnitude of tightening by the Bank of Canada, and signals from traditional recession warning tools like the slope of the yield curve, the recession probability remains elevated, particularly given added uncertainty stemming from failures in the US banking sector. However, growth has remained firmer than expected and the economy continues to create jobs at a robust pace. Still, high interest rates will start to drag on the broader economy this year and slower growth and significant progress on inflation should keep the Bank sidelined with the possibility of a rate cut in early 2024.
Canadian Employment (March 2023)
Canadian employment rose slightly to 20.08 million in March, up by 35,000 (0.2 per cent). The Canadian unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent, hovering just above all-time lows. Employment gains were concentrated in transportation and warehousing (+41,000); business, building and other support services (+31,000); and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+19,000). Average hourly wages were up 5.3 per cent from March of last year, while total hours worked were up 1.6 per cent year-over-year.
Employment in BC was unchanged in March, along with Metro Vancouver. However, the unemployment rate in BC fell to 4.5 per cent and in Metro Vancouver to 4.8 per cent. This reversed the jump in unemployment last month caused by increased labour force participation. Only Quebec currently has a lower unemployment rate than BC.
Employment in BC was unchanged in March, along with Metro Vancouver. However, the unemployment rate in BC fell to 4.5 per cent and in Metro Vancouver to 4.8 per cent. This reversed the jump in unemployment last month caused by increased labour force participation. Only Quebec currently has a lower unemployment rate than BC.
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Jeff Qian
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200 6751 Westminster Highway
Richmond, BC, V7CX 4V4
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