Three in Four Metro Vancouver Homes Are Now Selling Below Assessed Value — Here’s What the Number Really Means

A headline-making number landed this week: three in four Metro Vancouver homes sold this year closed below their assessed value. It’s the kind of stat that sounds like the whole market is on fire. It isn’t — but it does tell us something important. Here’s what the number really means.

The headline, in numbers. According to Zealty.ca, a B.C. real estate data platform, 18,168 of the 24,426 homes sold across Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley between January 1 and October 25 closed below their 2026 assessed value — roughly 74%. And the trend is accelerating: since July, Zealty says the share has climbed to “more than four-in-five.” On average, homes sold for 4.6% less than assessed value.

First, what “assessed value” actually is. Your 2026 assessment is not a November 2026 price. BC Assessment values every property as of July 1 of the previous year — so the 2026 roll reflects the market on July 1, 2025, sixteen months ago. As longtime Oakwyn realtor Gary Serra put it in the Sun’s reporting: “the 2026 assessments reflect July 1, 2025, market values, not October 2026 prices… It’s a snapshot of where the market was, not necessarily where it is today.” In a flat market, assessment and sale price hug each other. In a falling one, the gap opens — which is exactly what’s happened.

The gap matches what the boards have been reporting. That 4.6% average shortfall lines up neatly with the official data we’ve tracked all fall: the GVR composite benchmark was down 5.5% year-over-year in September, and Royal LePage is forecasting another 4.5% drop in Q4. This isn’t a new decline the assessment data discovered — it’s the same downturn we’ve been writing about, now visible through a different lens. When the market slides for a year, last July’s snapshot becomes this November’s ceiling.

The weakest and the exceptions. Richmond and New Westminster were the weakest performers, each averaging 7.1% below assessed value. At the other end, two markets actually sold above assessment on average: Whistler, at 6.2% above, and Squamish at 0.6% above — resort and outer-commuter demand holding up where the urban core has softened. The spread tells you this isn’t one market falling uniformly; it’s a map of where demand has retreated fastest.

The 2022 buyer problem, in one number. Perhaps the starkest figure: of homes bought in 2022 and resold this year, 78% sold for less than the owner originally paid. The Sun highlighted a New Westminster condo at Viscount Place that sold in September for $1.365 million against a $1.9 million assessment. Anyone who bought near the 2022 peak and needs to sell now is taking a real loss — and the assessment on the wall won’t cushion it.

What it means for sellers. As of October 27, 44% of active listings in B.C. were already priced below assessed value — sellers are reading the market. If you’re listing, your assessment is not your price. Price to today’s comparables, not to a sixteen-month-old number, or you’ll join the growing pile of listings that need a second try (and second tries sell at deeper discounts). What it means for buyers. “Below assessed value” is not automatically a deal. The assessment is a negotiation anchor, not a price target — what matters is what comparable homes actually sold for last month, not what a model said in July 2025. Use the gap as leverage, but do the comp work.

The bottom line. Three in four homes selling below assessment isn’t a crash signal — it’s arithmetic: a falling market measured against a rising-market snapshot. But it is confirmation, from a completely independent dataset, of everything this fall’s numbers have said. Sellers who price to 2025’s market will wait; sellers who price to November’s will move.

Wondering where your home sits against today’s market — not last July’s assessment? Get in touch for a straight read: info@jeffreyqian.com | (778) 238-2014.