Bank of Canada Meets October 28: What It Means for Your Mortgage and Your Move

On Wednesday, October 28, the Bank of Canada makes its next interest rate decision — and for the first time in nearly a year, nobody is sure which way it goes.

The policy rate has sat at 2.25% through seven consecutive decisions in 2026. Markets are split on what’s next: some traders are betting on the Bank’s first hike in over a year, while economists at TD, CIBC, RBC and Desjardins expect the Bank to hold through year-end and make its next move — likely upward — in early 2027. The odds shift with every data release, which tells you everything about how uncertain this moment is.

Here’s what actually matters if you’re buying, selling, or renewing in Metro Vancouver.

Your fixed rate doesn’t wait for the Bank. Fixed mortgage rates track five-year Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank’s policy rate — and yields have been climbing since July on global debt concerns and rate-hike expectations. Translation: fixed rates can edge higher even if the Bank holds on October 28. If your renewal is coming up — especially if you locked in a five-year fixed back in 2021 — don’t assume a hold means your rate stays put. Ask your lender now whether they’ll hold a renewal rate (many do, for around 120 days) and get it in writing.

If the Bank holds: stability, not relief. The base case among Canadian bank economists is a hold on October 28. That keeps prime at 4.45% and variable payments where they are. But don’t mistake a hold for good news on borrowing costs: with bond yields already doing the tightening work, the “wait for a rate cut” trade is dead. Buyers sitting on the sidelines hoping for cheaper money are likely to be disappointed.

If the Bank hikes: the math gets tighter, fast. A quarter-point hike would lift prime — and with it every variable-rate mortgage payment and HELOC in the country. It would also raise the qualifying bar, because the stress test doesn’t care about your optimism. Paradoxically, the mere prospect of higher rates tends to pull some buyers forward: as Royal LePage’s Phil Soper has noted, the threat of higher borrowing costs can draw buyers into the market sooner than they’d otherwise act. Expect a short burst of urgency, then a chill.

What this means for Metro Vancouver’s fall market. September gave us a buyer’s market by the numbers: 1,717 sales (down 8.4% year-over-year), a composite benchmark of $1,075,900 (down 5.5%), and inventory 24.3% above the ten-year seasonal average. Rate uncertainty is a big reason buyers stay hesitant — and that hesitation is exactly what keeps prices soft. If the Bank holds and signals patience, the hesitation likely extends into winter, keeping the negotiating advantage with buyers. If it hikes, expect demand to cool further into year-end.

What to do before October 28.

If you’re buying: get pre-approved now and ask for a 120-day rate hold. A hold locks in today’s numbers regardless of what the Bank does — it’s free insurance. Then shop with confidence: uncertainty is uncomfortable, but it’s also why you have selection, time, and negotiating room right now.

If you’re selling: price for today’s market, not for a rate cut that isn’t coming. Buyers are doing the math on every dollar of carrying cost, and overpricing in a soft, rate-uncertain market is how listings go stale.

If you’re renewing: find your exact maturity date and ask your lender the questions that matter — will you hold my rate, and in writing? If I have a variable mortgage, does my payment change or does my amortization stretch? What’s my trigger rate? And shop around: the renewal letter in the mail is rarely the best offer.

The decision lands October 28. Whatever the Bank does, the winning move is the same: know your numbers before the announcement, not after.

Thinking about a move this fall? Get in touch for a no-pressure read on what your home — or your target neighbourhood — is actually doing right now: info@jeffreyqian.com | (778) 238-2014.