Canadian real GDP was unchanged in February, following a modest contraction in January. Continued weakness in the oil and gas sector was offset by a rebound in retail trade.

While the Canadian economy has clearly decelerated in recent months, February's GDP numbers were actually better than most expected. Given all available data for the first quarter, the Canadian economy is tracking close to zero per cent growth in real GDP.  If the Bank of Canada is correct that most of the impact of lower oil prices will occur in the first quarter of 2015, we should see a gradual rebound in growth soon. If so, that likely puts any further loosening of monetary policy on hold.