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BC Commercial Leading Indicator Edges Lower, but Trend Still Points to Growth

The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) declined 0.4 points to an index level of 114.5 in the first quarter of 2014, breaking a string of four consecutive quarterly increases. On a year-over-year basis, the CLI was 1.5 per cent above the first quarter of 2013. The index reached an all-time high of 116.2 in the second quarter of 2007.

In spite of last quarter’s dip, the trend underlying the CLI continues to signal growth for the commercial real estate market. An upturn in the CLI trend is historically a good signal of expanding commercial real estate activity in the following two to four quarters.

"Although the CLI posted a modest decline in the first quarter, momentum in the underlying trend is still signalling a positive economic environment for the commercial market,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Economist. “Moreover, an expected acceleration in the BC economy this year means that the first quarter decline should be temporary."

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