Jeffrey Qián 錢 曄 // 778-238-2014 // info@jeffreyqian.com

Please visit our Open House at 601 7888 SABA RD in Richmond.
Open House on Saturday, November 9, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
OPAL at Richmond Centre. Steps to shopping & Canada Line Station. 2 bdrms/study room+ 2 full baths, highly functional and efficient floor plan, wood flooring in living & dining room, granite counters, glass kitchen cabinets and stainless steel appliances. Huge balcony with city & mountain view.
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I have listed a new property at 601 7888 SABA RD in Richmond.
OPAL at Richmond Centre. Steps to shopping & Canada Line Station. 2 bdrms/study room+ 2 full baths, highly functional and efficient floor plan, wood flooring in living & dining room, granite counters, glass kitchen cabinets and stainless steel appliances. Huge balcony with city & mountain view.
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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 1.8 per cent to about 77,100 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 10.9 per cent to 85,500 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units.

“After a slow start to 2019, MLS® home sales in BC have embarked on a sustained upward trend since the spring,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist. “The dampening effects of federal mortgage rules mean that rather than a return to the heights of recent years, home sales are simply returning to trend after sustaining a significant shock.”  

As demand normalizes, the accumulation of resale inventory has reversed course in many markets around BC. We anticipate that this trend will continue in 2020, with sales and listings finding balance. For most markets, this will mean price growth that is in-line with inflation, though for some supply-constrained areas we are forecasting strong price growth. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3.6 per cent to $723,000 in 2020. 
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The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 1.75 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that ongoing trade conflicts have weakened the global economic outlook, which is expected to drag Canadian economic growth below its potential in the second half of this year. The bank is further projecting that growth will register under 2 per cent over the next two years. Inflation is expected to trend at the Bank's target of 2 per cent.

With the expectation that the US Federal Reserve will be lowering its own policy rate later today, the third rate cut this year, there may be extra pressure for the Bank to begin loosening monetary policy at its next meeting.  As reflected by the Bank's statement, while current trade conflicts will test the resilience of the Canadian economy, the Bank does not as yet foresee the need for lower interest rates. However, the Bank stands ready to act if the impact of trade conflicts spreads beyond trade and investment and begin to slow consumer spending or housing activity. Thus far, the Bank appears to judge those risks as contained, which likely mean no change in interest rates this year.
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I have sold a property at 806 819 HAMILTON ST in Vancouver.
819 Hamilton, built by the reputable BOSA Developments, located in the heart of downtown, steps way from Yaletown, Robson Street, Gastown and BC Place. This well laid out and well kept suite, has open kitchen flows into large living/dining area. Sunny Den connect to bedroom is a perfect space for reading/working. Building amenities include a fully equipped gym and sauna making your self-care that much more convenient! In suite laundry, in suite storage room, 1 parking, 2 storage lockers, a pro-active strata and an on-site caretaker round out this complete package. Come see for yourself!
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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose by 1.9 per cent compared to the same time last year, equaling the increase in August. Excluding the impact of lower energy prices, the CPI was up 2.4 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation were all slightly higher in September, averaging 2.1 per cent. In B.C., CPI inflation ticked higher to 2.4 per cent in September compared to a year ago.

A recent surge in national employment growth combined with inflation at its 2 per cent target, plus some quieting of trade tensions globally, means that the Bank of Canada will likely remain on hold at its October meeting.


 
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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 6,938 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September, an increase of 24 per cent from the same month last year. The average MLS® residential price in the province was $697,943, an increase of 2.1 per cent from September 2018. Total sales dollar volume was $4.84 billion, a 26.5 per cent increase from the same month last year.

“Markets across BC built on momentum from the summer,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “While the year-over-year increase in provincial sales was quite strong, home sales in most areas are simply returning to historically average levels.”

MLS® residential active listings in the province were up 4 per cent from September 2018 to 39,117 units and were essentially flat compared to August on a seasonally adjusted basis. Overall market conditions remained in a balanced range with a sales-to-active listings ratio of about 18 per cent.    
 
Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was down 12.4 per cent to $39.7 billion, compared with the same period in 2018. Residential unit sales were 8.9 per cent lower at 57,773 units, while the average MLS® residential price was down 3.9 per cent year-to-date at $687,530.    
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Canadian employment increased in September by 54,000 jobs, driven by Ontario (41,000). This brought the unemployment rate down from 5.7% in the previous month to 5.5% in September. Leading the increase in September was full-time employment, while part-time fell. Most of the increase was reported in healthcare, and accommodation and food services.  

Employment in BC fell by 8,400 jobs in September. This marks the fourth consecutive monthly decline, driven by a decline in part-time employment (-17,200), while full-time employment rose (+8,800). By Industry, the most significant employment losses were in information/culture/recreation. The provincial unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 4.8%. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC is up by 1% (33,400 jobs).   


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Growth in the Canadian economy was flat in July, following fourth months of growth. The goods producing industries reported a decline (-0.7%), led by mining, quarrying, and oil and gas. This was exacerbated by a facility shutdown in Newfoundland and Labrador. In contrast, the service-producers reported a gain (0.3%), leading the way was wholesale trade, professional services and real estate.

We expect growth in the Canadian economy will moderate to between 1.5 and 2 per cent  in the second half of 2019 after posting strong second quarter growth and will post trend growth of about 1.8 per cent in 2020. Significant downside risks remain due to elevated trade tensions and their consequent impact on exports and business investment.

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Please visit our Open House at 806 819 HAMILTON ST in Vancouver.
Open House on Saturday, September 28, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
819 Hamilton, built by the reputable BOSA Developments, located in the heart of downtown, steps way from Yaletown, Robson Street, Gastown and BC Place. This well laid out and well kept suite, has open kitchen flows into large living/dining area. Sunny Den connect to bedroom is a perfect space for reading/working. Building amenities include a fully equipped gym and sauna making your self-care that much more convenient! In suite laundry, in suite storage room, 1 parking, 2 storage lockers, a pro-active strata and an on-site caretaker round out this complete package. Come see for yourself!
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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9 per cent in August year-over-year, down from a 2 per cent increase in the previous month. This marks 6-months of consecutive year-over-year growth in the CPI, coinciding with strong labour market conditions. Excluding the impact of lower gasoline prices, the CPI rose by 2.4 per cent year-over-year. The Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation remain unchanged to average 2 per cent in August.

In B.C., CPI slowed to 2 per cent year-over-year, down from 2.1 per cent in July. The decline was largely driven by gasoline prices, as global oil prices declined slightly in August due to higher production and soft international demand.  

With Canadian inflation just under 2 per cent, the Bank of Canada will have to turn to other economic indicators at their next meeting on October 28. The Bank will have to consider how to balance a stable domestic economy with continued global uncertainty.   


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Please visit our Open House at 806 819 HAMILTON ST in Vancouver.
Open House on Saturday, September 14, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
819 Hamilton, built by the reputable BOSA Developments, located in the heart of downtown, steps way from Yaletown, Robson Street, Gastown and BC Place. This well laid out and well kept suite, has open kitchen flows into large living/dining area. Sunny Den connect to bedroom is a perfect space for reading/working. Building amenities include a fully equipped gym and sauna making your self-care that much more convenient! In suite laundry, in suite storage room, 1 parking, 2 storage lockers, a pro-active strata and an on-site caretaker round out this complete package. Come see for yourself! Open house Sat and Sun 2-4pm
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The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose by 0.7 points to 135.7 in the second quarter of 2019. Compared to this time one year ago, the index is unchanged.

Slowing provincial economic activity continued in the second quarter of 2019, with declines in retail sales and wholesale trade more than offsetting gains in the manufacturing sector. This meant the economic activity component of the CLI remained negative for the fourth consecutive quarter. Meanwhile, employment was up in office and manufacturing, resulting in a positive change in the employment component of the CLI. The financial component of the CLI was positive for a second straight quarter. The underlying trend in the CLI has been relatively flat over the past four quarters, suggesting a continued stabilizing environment for commercial real estate activity.

Following several years of robust growth, the BC economy continues to slow in the first half of 2019. Broad-based declines in retail sales put a drag on economic activity, particularly in the sub-sectors of motor vehicles and parts, food and beverage, and gasoline.

Following several years of robust growth, the BC economy continues to slow in the early part of 2019. The economic activity component of the CLI posted a third consecutive quarterly decline, led by the personal and household goods, and building material and supply components of wholesale trade.

Employment growth in key commercial real estate sectors was strong in the second quarter. Office employment in finance, insurance, real estate and leasing was up by 6,700 jobs. This measure of office employment now sits at an all-time high, signalling strong future demand for office space. Meanwhile, manufacturing employment rebounded by 6,300 from the previous quarter.

The CLI’s financial component was positive in the second quarter, as a narrowing of short-term credit spreads offset a decline in benchmark Canadian REIT prices.

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Canadian housing starts increased by 1.9% in August to 226,639 units at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The trend in Canadian housing starts was up, averaging 218,998 units SAAR over the past six months, continuing a robust trend. 

In BC, housing starts were down by 26% on a monthly basis to 39,266 units SAAR. This largely reflects activity that was pushed forward in previous months as developers tried to get ahead of a new development charge in Vancouver. Compared to the same time last year, provincial starts were down 17%. On a monthly basis, starts of multi-units were down by 33%, while singles were up by 4%.

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC: 

  • Housing starts in Vancouver were down by 38% in August at 19,858 units SAAR, following a 23% decrease in the previous month. This marks the lowest level since October 2018. The decline was entirely in the multi unit segment. Compared to last year in August, housing starts in Vancouver were down by 20%. 
  • In Victoria, housing starts were down by 55% on a monthly basis to 1,645 units SAAR. Compared to a year ago, housing starts were down by 77%.
  • In Kelowna, housing starts increased by 298% in August to 5,844 units SAAR, rebounding from low levels the previous month. Year-over-year, starts were up by 47%. 
  • Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were down by 62% at 1,125 units SAAR, down from high levels reported the previous month. Compared to this time last year, new home construction was up by 234% due to strong multi-unit starts.
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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2019 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to decline 5 per cent to about 75,000 units this year, after recording 78,505 residential sales in 2018. MLS® residential sales are forecast to increase 11 per cent to 82,700 units in 2020, just below the 10-year average for MLS® residential sales of 85,800 units.

“BC markets are showing signs of recovery after nearly a year and a half of policy-induced declines,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Deputy Chief Economist. “We expect that recovery to continue into next year, with home sales normalizing around long-term averages.”

A recovery in home sales has slowed the accumulation of resale inventory, with active listings still well short of the previous peak in 2012. That leaves market conditions at the provincial level essentially balanced with little upward pressure on prices. We anticipate that the MLS® average price will decline 2.4 per cent in 2019 before rising modestly by 3 per cent to $718,000 in 2020.

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The Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75 per cent this morning. In the statement accompanying the decision the Bank noted escalated trade tensions between the US and China has resulted in weakened  business investment, lower commodity prices and heightened global risk.  While the Canadian economy posted strong growth in the second quarter of this year, the Bank attributes that growth to temporary factors unlikely to be repeated in the back half of the year. Overall, the Bank judges that the economy is operating close to its potential and inflation is in line with its target.  However, rising uncertainty in the global economy is impacting economic growth and further escalation may require additional monetary stimulus.

While the Bank of Canada, as expected, opted to not follow other central banks in lowering its policy rate, it has left the door open to lowering rates should developments in the global economy warrant doing so. Currently, economic conditions in Canada do not require further stimulus, and policymakers remain weary of re-igniting a build-up in household debt particularly after imposing policies designed to bring those debt burdens down.  We expect the  Bank will therefore remain on hold as long as current economic risk does not reach a tipping point, such as an impending recession in the United States.  As the uncertain global outlook keeps bond yields down, Canadian mortgage rates should stay near their current sub-3 per cent level for some time.
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The Canadian economy rebounded in the second quarter, surging at an annual rate of 3.7 per cent. That follows two quarters of lackluster sub-1 per cent real GDP growth.  Growth was primarily led by a recovery in export volumes which masked underlying weakness in domestic demand, which actually declined as household spending slowed and business investment declined.

Despite a solid second quarter growth, we are forecasting that the Canadian economy will expand by only 1.5 per cent this year, a slight deceleration from 1.8 per cent growth in 2018.  Moreover, inflation remains closely tied to its 2 per cent target, and unemployment remains very low, which should translate to a sidelined Bank of Canada. That said, risks to the economy are very clearly tilted to the downside. The US continues to flirt with potentially disastrous trade wars and global financial markets are anticipating a US recession in the next twelve months.  Should those fears be realized, the next move by the Bank will certainly be to lower its overnight rate.
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Please visit our Open House at 806 819 HAMILTON ST in Vancouver.
Open House on Saturday, August 24, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
819 Hamilton, built by the reputable BOSA Developments, located in the heart of downtown, steps way from Yaletown, Robson Street, Gastown and BC Place. This well laid out and well kept suite, has open kitchen flows into large living/dining area. Sunny Den connect to bedroom is a perfect space for reading/working. Building amenities include a fully equipped gym and sauna making your self-care that much more convenient! In suite laundry, in suite storage room, 1 parking, 2 storage lockers, a pro-active strata and an on-site caretaker round out this complete package. Come see for yourself! Open house Sat and Sun 2-4pm
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Please visit our Open House at 806 819 HAMILTON ST in Vancouver.
Open House on Sunday, August 25, 2019 2:00PM - 4:00PM
819 Hamilton, built by the reputable BOSA Developments, located in the heart of downtown, steps way from Yaletown, Robson Street, Gastown and BC Place. This well laid out and well kept suite, has open kitchen flows into large living/dining area. Sunny Den connect to bedroom is a perfect space for reading/working. Building amenities include a fully equipped gym and sauna making your self-care that much more convenient! In suite laundry, in suite storage room, 1 parking, 2 storage lockers, a pro-active strata and an on-site caretaker round out this complete package. Come see for yourself! Open house Sat and Sun 2-4pm
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Canadian retail sales were unchanged in June, as stronger sales across most sub-sectors were offset by lower sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations. Retail sales were down in 4 of 11 sub-sectors in June, representing 48% of sales. Provincially, Saskatchewan reported the largest decline (-2.7%) and Manitoba reported the largest gain (1.3%).

In B.C., retail sales declined 0.4% from the previous month to $7.16 billion. Vancouver also reported a 3% decline in sales. Provincial sales were down in most sub-sectors, except at electronics and appliance stores, sporting goods/hobby/book/music stores, and miscellaneous retail stores. On a year-over-year basis, B.C. retail sales were up 1 per cent in June.

Excluding the volatile motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline sub-sectors, June national retail sales increased 1.7%. This is a positive hand-off to the third quarter. Keeping in mind that some of the gains were due to the Toronto Raptors games in the NBA finals (as reported by Statistics Canada), supporting increased sales at clothing and sporting stores.  

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The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the MLS® Reciprocity program of either the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB) or the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (CADREB). Real estate listings held by participating real estate firms are marked with the MLS® logo and detailed information about the listing includes the name of the listing agent. This representation is based in whole or part on data generated by either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB which assumes no responsibility for its accuracy. The materials contained on this page may not be reproduced without the express written consent of either the REBGV, the FVREB or the CADREB.