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Canadian employment grew for the fourth consecutive month in September, rising by 157,000 to 19.13 million (0.8%, m/m). During the survey period, several provinces had reintroduced or planned to reintroduce vaccine passports and indoor masking. Restrictions on international travelers entering the country were eased on September 7th, likely boosting tourism employment. 

The current employment level matches the figure from February 2020, meaning that the job market has technically erased the losses from the pandemic. Due to population growth, the employment rate remains 0.9 percentage points below February 2020 at 60.9%. The Canadian unemployment rate declined for a fourth consecutive month to 6.9%, the lowest level since the onset of the pandemic. 

In BC, employment grew by 12,300 to 2.682 million (0.46%, m/m), once again hitting the highest level since the pandemic began. For the fourth consecutive month, British Columbia was the sole province with employment notably above its pre-pandemic level. The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 in September to 5.9%, the lowest level since the pandemic began. BC has the third lowest unemployment rate in Canada, following Manitoba and Quebec. 



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Vancouver, BC – October 12, 2021. 
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,164 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2021, a decrease of 19.9 per cent from September 2020. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $913,471, a 14 per cent increase from $801,241 recorded in September 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $8.4 billion, an 8.6 per cent decline from last year.

“Home sales have settled at levels that are slightly above long-term average,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The main story in all markets continues to be a severe lack of listings supply, particularly in Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island and Interior markets.”

Total active residential listings were down 36.8 per cent year-over-year in September for the province as a whole and were more than more than 50 per cent below last September’s levels in the Fraser Valley and Victoria.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 81.8 per cent to $90.4 billion, compared to the same period in 2020. Residential unit sales were up 52.4 per cent to 99,182 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 19.3 per cent to $911,195.
 
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Canadian housing starts declined for the fourth consecutive month in September, but remain strong compared to typical pre-pandemic activity. Housing starts decreased by 11.6k to 251.2k units (-4.4% m/m) in September at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Comparing year-over-year, starts were up significantly from September of 2020 (20.1% y/y). Single-detached housing starts dipped 5% in September to 76.7k, while multi-family and others declined 4% to 174.4k (SAAR). 

In British Columbia, starts declined for a third consecutive month, dropping sharply by 23.7% m/m to 35.9k units SAAR in all areas of the province. Single-detached starts rose 9.6% m/m to 7.9k units while multi-family starts offset this growth with a 32.5% decline to 23.7k units. Despite this, starts in the province remained 11% above the levels from September 2020. BC's six-month moving average for starts declined sharply following three months of gains. 
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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 4.4% on a year-over-year basis in September, rising at the fastest rate since 2003. On a month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.2% in September. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.7% year-over-year in September. Major drivers of the year-over-year price increase included transportation prices (+9.1%), shelter (+4.8%) and food prices (+3.9%) partly on continuing supply-chain difficulties. The homeowner replacement cost index, which measures the cost of replacing home structures, rose 14.4% year-over-year in September, which was the fastest rate since the 1980s. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.15% month-over-month, and up 3.5% on a year-over-year basis. 

Inflation continues to run ahead of the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target. The driving force behind rising prices is still isolated to a few categories of spending. In particular, the rising price of gasoline and the run-up in Canadian home prices since last year. Those categories alone accounted for about half of the observed inflation in September. Home prices in Canada are beginning to flatten out, which should mean a fading impact on inflation over the next year. Likewise, the impact of gas prices should continue to decline as base-year effects have less influence. Other issues putting upward pressure on consumer prices are being driven by bottlenecks and supply shortages. Those shortages are unlikely to resolve quickly and so we anticipate that the current elevated rate of inflation will linger for some time to come. Inflation that is lingering above target for an extended period may put some pressure on the Bank of Canada, though we still expect the first rate increase to come toward the end of 2022.


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Posted in: Dunbar, Vancouver West Real Estate
I have listed a new property at 3652 23RD AVE W in Vancouver.
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West of Dunbar! Fully renovated in 2016 with almost everything New! This 5 bed 3.5 bath bright home offers open floor plan with large kitchen and luxury living spaces. Lower level with independent entrance can be a good mortgage helper. Steps to trans, shops, parks. Best Public&Private School catchment: Lord Byng Secondary/Lord Kitchener Elementary. Measurements approximate.
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Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 3.7% on a year-over-year basis in July, hitting the highest rate since prior to the pandemic. Overall, the upward bias of "base-year effects" are no longer substantially influencing the year-over-year CPI changes, although they still have an effect on certain subcomponents such as gasoline. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in July. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which use techniques to strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 2.5% year-over-year in July. In BC, consumer prices were up 0.7% month-over-month, and up 3.1% on a year-over-year basis in July. The homeowner replacement cost index, which measures the cost of replacing home structures, rose 13.8% year over year in July, which was the fastest rate since the 1980s. Related costs, such as commissions on the sale of real estate, also rose strongly in July. Prices of passenger vehicles rose 5.5% year-over-year in July due to the continuing challenges related to semiconductor chip supply chains. 

While inflation is currently running higher than the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target, many economists expect this elevated rate of price increases to be transitory as economies emerge from the pandemic and supply chains normalize. Base-year effects from falling prices during the early months of the pandemic had exaggerated year-over-year changes in CPI, but these effects have now largely ended. The rate of inflation as measured by CPI is very important for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy stance over the next year. If higher inflation is not transitory but instead the result of an over-stimulated economy, the central bank could act to raise interest rates sooner than expected. However, if the uptick in inflation fades in the coming months, we expect the Bank will stay its current course.



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August 17, 2021 The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 26 per cent to 118,350 units this year, after recording 94,007 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS®residential sales are forecast to pull back 15 per cent to 100,150 units.  

“The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has BC on track for a record-breaking year,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist.

With strong demand being supported by low mortgage rates and a rapidly rebounding post-COVID economy, the more significant concern is whether there will be an adequate supply of listings in the market. The supply situation is especially severe in markets outside the Lower Mainland, where new listings activity has been lackluster. As a result, the average price in 2021 is on track to post a second consecutive year of double-digit gains. We are forecasting the provincial average price to rise 16.6 per cent to $911,300 this year, followed by a 2.9 per cent gain next year to $937,300.

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Posted in: Cambie, Vancouver West Real Estate
I have sold a property at 101 505 30TH AVE W in Vancouver.
See details here
Modern Urban Living in Parkside Residence! This Empire QE unit is in CONCRETE midrise and built to LEED(R) gold standard. The 2 bedrooms with den unit is sitting at the high side of the block, facing SOUTH to tranquil West 30th Avenue with private patio to enjoy adequate sunshine. High end finishing inside: marble countertop, Duravit and Grohe fixtures, top of the line Miele major appliances, the list goes on..... One parking and one locker are included, plus one bike storage! Walking distance to QE Park and Hillcrest Recreation Centre for exercise, Cambie Village or Oakridge Mall for shopping and restaurants, and King Edward SkyTrain for transit. Amenities include gym, party room, roof top garden, workshop and playground. This home fulfills your needs and lifestyle!
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Canadian housing starts dipped slightly in July, but remain elevated by historical standards. While housing starts decreased to 272.2k units (-3.2% m/m) in July at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate (SAAR), on a year-over-year basis starts were still 11% above their July 2020 levels. Single-detached housing starts increased 7.1% from June, but this growth was not large enough to offset a 3.1% decline in multi-unit starts, resulting in an overall decline. 

In British Columbia, starts declined 26% m/m to 50.7k units SAAR in all areas of the province. This drop was driven by declines in multi-unit starts in metro Vancouver. Despite this volatility, starts in the province in July were still up 26% on a year-over-year basis. In terms of the six-month moving average, BC is at a record-high level of housing starts for a second consecutive month. In centres with at least 10,000 residents, single-detached starts were down 1%, while multi-unit starts were down 27% from last month. In Vancouver, housing starts were unchanged compared with July of 2020, while Victoria starts were up 72%, Kelowna was up 56%, and Abbotsford was up 2%.





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Posted in: Cambie, Vancouver West Real Estate
I have listed a new property at 101 505 30TH AVE W in Vancouver.
See details here
Modern Urban Living in Parkside Residence! This Empire QE unit is in CONCRETE midrise and built to LEED(R) gold standard. The 2 bedrooms with den unit is sitting at the high side of the block, facing SOUTH to tranquil West 30th Avenue with private patio to enjoy adequate sunshine. High end finishing inside: marble countertop, Duravit and Grohe fixtures, top of the line Miele major appliances, the list goes on..... One parking and one locker are included, plus one bike storage! Walking distance to QE Park and Hillcrest Recreation Centre for exercise, Cambie Village or Oakridge Mall for shopping and restaurants, and King Edward SkyTrain for transit. Amenities include gym, party room, roof top garden, workshop and playground. This home fulfills your needs and lifestyle!
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Posted in: Cambie, Vancouver West Real Estate
Please visit our Open House at 101 505 30TH AVE W in Vancouver.
See details here
Open House on Saturday, August 14, 2021 2:00PM - 4:00PM
Modern Urban Living in Parkside Residence! This Empire QE unit is in CONCRETE midrise and built to LEED(R) gold standard. The 2 bedrooms with den unit is sitting at the high side of the block, facing SOUTH to tranquil West 30th Avenue with private patio to enjoy adequate sunshine. High end finishing inside: marble countertop, Duravit and Grohe fixtures, top of the line Miele major appliances, the list goes on..... One parking and one locker are included, plus one bike storage! Walking distance to QE Park and Hillcrest Recreation Centre for exercise, Cambie Village or Oakridge Mall for shopping and restaurants, and King Edward SkyTrain for transit. Amenities include gym, party room, roof top garden, workshop and playground. This home fulfills your needs and lifestyle!
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Posted in: Cambie, Vancouver West Real Estate
Please visit our Open House at 101 505 30TH AVE W in Vancouver.
See details here
Open House on Sunday, August 15, 2021 2:00PM - 4:00PM
Modern Urban Living in Parkside Residence! This Empire QE unit is in CONCRETE midrise and built to LEED(R) gold standard. The 2 bedrooms with den unit is sitting at the high side of the block, facing SOUTH to tranquil West 30th Avenue with private patio to enjoy adequate sunshine. High end finishing inside: marble countertop, Duravit and Grohe fixtures, top of the line Miele major appliances, the list goes on..... One parking and one locker are included, plus one bike storage! Walking distance to QE Park and Hillcrest Recreation Centre for exercise, Cambie Village or Oakridge Mall for shopping and restaurants, and King Edward SkyTrain for transit. Amenities include gym, party room, roof top garden, workshop and playground. This home fulfills your needs and lifestyle!
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Canadian housing starts continued at a historically high level in June. Although housing starts decreased to 282.1k units (-1.5% m/m) in June at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), on a year-over-year basis starts were still 33% above their June 2020 levels. The six-month moving average of SAAR housing starts rose 3.1% to 293.6k units in June. Single-detached housing starts declined 6.9% from May, while all other housing starts rose 0.9%. 

In BC starts rose faster than any other province in June, up 43% m/m to 68k units SAAR in all areas of the province. The level remains just below a record March when new units were constructed at a 71K unit annualized pace. In terms of the six-month moving average, BC is at a record level of housing starts. In centres with at least 10,000 residents, single-detached starts were flat, but multi-unit starts were up 56% from last month. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts in June were up 74%. In Vancouver, housing starts were 91% higher than June of 2020, while in Victoria starts were up 78% from the same month last year. 



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Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.6% year-over-year in May, up from 3.4% in April. This is the highest level since May of 2011. Much of the increase in inflation was the result of base-year effects, as prices remained depressed in May of last year due to pandemic-induced shutdowns. On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, the CPI was up 0.5% in May. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of core inflation (which strip out volatile elements) rose an average of 0.2% from April, to 2.3% year-over-year. In BC, consumer prices were unchanged month-over-month and down from 3% year-over-year in April to 2.7% year-over-year in May.

While inflation is currently running higher than the Bank of Canada's 2 per cent target, much of the increase looks to be temporary and is likely to fade as base-year effects become less significant in coming months. Base-year effects are now beginning to fall out of the inflation statistics, as April was the CPI's nadir last year. How inflation evolves over the next 3 to 6 months will be very important for the stance of monetary policy over the next year. If higher inflation is not just a temporary phenomenon but is being driven by an over-stimulated economy, than we could see the Bank of Canada act on interest rates prior to 2023. However, if the uptick in inflation starts to fade in coming months, we expect the Bank will stay its current course.



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The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose from 144 to 150 in the first quarter of 2021, representing the third consecutive increase as the economy recovered from the COVID-19-induced recession. Compared to the same time last year, the index was up by 15 per cent.

It is important to note that while the economy is posting a very strong recovery, we are still in an abnormal and uncertain environment for commercial real estate. Normally, the type of growth we see reflected in the CLI would imply an improvement in demand for retail and office space. However, the complexities of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health restrictions are driving a wedge between what we see in the data and what is being experienced on the ground.

A 12 per cent jump in manufacturing activity, largely due to surging demand and prices for wood products, and a 6 per cent increase in wholesale trade activity were the main contributors from the economic activity component of the CLI.

Employment in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate (FIRE) and leasing increased by about 13,000 jobs in the first quarter. While our office employment measure is now at an all-time high, it is unclear what the implications are for office space demand given the uncertainty around the near-term outlook for a return to traditional office environments. Despite very strong sales activity, manufacturing employment fell by about 6,500 jobs. That decline may be a temporary phenomenon owing to the third wave of COVID-19 and its impact on manufacturing work.

The CLI’s financial component was positive in the first quarter of 2021, as REIT prices rose to their highest level since the fourth quarter of 2019 and risk spreads continued to narrow.

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Canadian housing starts increased by 3.2% m/m to 275.9k units in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). Starts hit a record in March of 333.3k before declining somewhat in April. Single-detached housing starts declined 12% from April, while all other housing starts rose 11%. National housing starts were up by 41% compared to the same time last year and the six-month moving average level of starts is trending at an elevated level of 281,000 units SAAR. 

In BC, housing starts rose 19% m/m to 45.2k units SAAR in all areas of the province, but remains below a record March that saw new homes constructed at a nearly 71K unit annualized pace. Building activity was up 30% in the multi-unit segment, while single-detached starts were down by 10%. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were up by 17% in BC. 





https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-may-2021
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Vancouver, BC – June 14, 2021. 
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 12,638 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in May 2021, an increase of 178.2 per cent over May 2020 when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic prompted a lockdown of the provincial economy. The average MLS®residential price in BC was $916,340, a 26.2 per cent increase from $726,335 recorded in May 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $11.6 billion, a 251 per cent increase from last year.

“Provincial housing markets continue to calm after peaking in March,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The implementation of a stricter mortgage stress test in June may have a minor impact on home sales but we expect strong market activity over the second half of the year."

Total active residential listings were down 17 per cent year-over-year in May and dipped lower on a seasonally adjusted basis following two prior months of rising active listings.

“On the supply side, markets in the Lower Mainland are seeing a strong supply response, with new listings rising,” said Ogmundson, “however, new listings in markets outside of Metro Vancouver have started to flatten out.”
 
-30-
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The Canadian economy expanded at a 5.6 per cent annual rate in the first quarter of 2021, including very strong growth in March. However, restrictions due to the third wave of the pandemic point to a minor contraction of output in the month of April before getting back on track for the rest of the year. Growth was led by a 9.4 per cent increase in housing investment, which led the overall recovery, rising 26.5 per cent since the first quarter of last year. Household spending  was up 0.7 per cent in the first quarter or about 2.7 per cent on an annualized basis as household disposable income rose for the first time following two consecutive declines .  Households continue to save at historically high rates during the pandemic. The national household savings rate rose to 13.1 per cent  in the first quarter of 2021, more than double the savings rate this time last year. As vaccinations continue a strong ascent, we expect the Canadian economy to record about 6 per cent growth this year.

The Canadian economy is enjoying strong growth and that growth should continue through most of this year as ramped up vaccinations combine with pent-up demand and unprecedented household savings.  While strong economic growth this year is a near certainty, what is less certain is the impact that growth may have on inflation and therefore the direction of the Bank of Canada. Most view the recent increase in inflation as a temporary phenomenon driven mainly by "base-year" and other transitory effects. While there is some risk that an over-stimulated economy may be more inflationary than currently believed, there remains considerable slack in the Canadian economy and financial markets remain unconvinced that the economy is headed for markedly higher inflation. That has left government bond yields and fixed mortgage rates  low and stable for the past several months.



Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-real-gdp-growth-q12021
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The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose from 144 to 150 in the first quarter of 2021, representing the third consecutive increase as the economy recovered from the COVID-19-induced recession. Compared to the same time last year, the index was up by 15 per cent.

It is important to note that while the economy is posting a very strong recovery, we are still in an abnormal and uncertain environment for commercial real estate. Normally, the type of growth we see reflected in the CLI would imply an improvement in demand for retail and office space. However, the complexities of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health restrictions are driving a wedge between what we see in the data and what is being experienced on the ground.

A 12 per cent jump in manufacturing activity, largely due to surging demand and prices for wood products, and a 6 per cent increase in wholesale trade activity were the main contributors from the economic activity component of the CLI.

Employment in key commercial real estate sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate (FIRE) and leasing increased by about 13,000 jobs in the first quarter. While our office employment measure is now at an all-time high, it is unclear what the implications are for office space demand given the uncertainty around the near-term outlook for a return to traditional office environments. Despite very strong sales activity, manufacturing employment fell by about 6,500 jobs. That decline may be a temporary phenomenon owing to the third wave of COVID-19 and its impact on manufacturing work.

The CLI’s financial component was positive in the first quarter of 2021, as REIT prices rose to their highest level since the fourth quarter of 2019 and risk spreads continued to narrow.

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