Canadian housing starts decreased by 12.6% m/m to 228,279 units in December at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following a strong increase of 14% in the previous month. Housing starts decreased in 8 of 10 provinces with the largest decline in Manitoba (-40.5%). Building activity declined in both the single-detached (-6.2%) and multi-unit (-15.5%) segments. Despite December's decline, housing starts finished 2020 higher than the previous year. Also, the six-month moving average was still a robust 239,052 units SAAR. 

In BC, housing starts decreased by 12.1% m/m to 43,602 units SAAR in December, following a strong increase of 51% in November. Building activity was down by 15.7% in the multi-unit segment, while single-detached starts were up by 1.5%. The decline in the multi-unit segment was led by Vancouver.

The pullback in December was not unexpected as tighter COVID-19 restrictions were put in place. We can still expect housing activity to be supported by strong demand and historically low borrowing rates. The value of BC residential building permits was up by 22% in November with a strong increase in the multi-unit segment, which will contribute positively to economic growth. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were up by 1.2% in BC. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-dec-january-18-2021

Retail sales rose for the sixth consecutive month in October by 0.4% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which is higher than Statistic Canada's preliminary estimate of no change. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors, representing 50.9% of retail sales. The increase was led by higher sales at auto and parts dealers. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 7.5%.    

Sales were up in seven provinces in October. In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 2.1% ($8.0 billion) and by 2.8% ($3.7 billion) in Vancouver. Contributing the most to the increase were sales at health and personal care stores. Compared to the same time last year, BC retail sales were up by 11.5%.   

In October, e-commerce sales totaled $3.1 billion, accounting for 5.2% of total retails sales, which is down from 5.6% in the previous month. Meanwhile, e-commerce sales were up by 68% from a year ago. This excludes Canadians purchasing from foreign e-commerce retailers.  
    
Despite the rising cases of COVID-19 and stricter lockdown measures in many provinces, positive retail sales are expected going into the holiday season, especially in e-commerce.    

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-oct-december-18-2020 

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.0% in November year-over-year. This is the largest increase since the pandemic started in March. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.4%. Prices rose in six of eight components year-over-year in November, with the recreation, education, and reading index contributing the most to the increase. Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation remains unchanged from the previous month, averaging 1.7%. 

Regionally, the CPI was positive in eight provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 1.1% in November year-over-year, up from October's increase of 0.5%. Strong price growth continued for health and personal care (3.3%) and shelter (2.4%). In contrast, gas prices continue to be a drag on BC's inflation (-12.3%). 

Costs for shelter continue to increase, as rental rates rise and record-low interest rates put downward pressure on mortgage costs, making single-family homes more attractive to households demanding more space. As containment measures expand in many provinces, consumers are spending more on furniture and household appliances, which remain above pre-pandemic levels. Canadian inflation is expected to remain subdued in the near future. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-inflation-nov-december-15-2020

Canadian housing starts increased by 14% m/m to 246,033 units in November at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following an increase in the previous month. Housing starts increased in 9 of 10 provinces with the strongest gains in BC and the Atlantic. Building activity in the multi-unit segment rebounded after two consecutive months of decline. November's strong performance increased the six-month moving average to a historic high of 231,491 units SAAR.  

In BC, housing starts increased by 53% m/m to 46,608 units SAAR in November, following two consecutive months of decline. Building activity was up by 76% in the multi-unit segment, while single-detached starts were down by 1%. The increase in the multi-unit segment was concentrated in Vancouver. In the near term, we can expect housing activity to continue to be supported by strong demand and historically low borrowing rates but are not expected to remain at elevated levels. The value of BC residential building permits was down by 12% in October. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were down by 2% in BC.  

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-housing-starts-nov-december-15-2020

Retail sales rose for the fifth consecutive month in September by 1.1% on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which is higher than Statistic Canada's preliminary estimate of no change. Sales were up in 9 of 11 subsectors, representing 93.2% of retail sales. The increase was led by higher sales at auto dealers. General merchandise stores increased for the first time in three months, while sales bounced back at furniture and home furnishing stores. Compared to the same time last year, retail sales were up by 8%.    

Sales were up in eight provinces in September, with notable increases in PEI (4.4%), New Brunswick (3.8%) and Alberta (2.5%). In BC, seasonally-adjusted retail sales were up by 1.7% ($7.8 billion) and by 0.9% ($3.6 billion) in Vancouver. Retail sales were up in almost half of the subsectors, driven by increased sales at auto dealers, while a notable decline was reported at grocery and liquor stores. 

Growth in e-commerce was back up in September by 74% year-over-year, after two consecutive months of declines. In September, e-commerce sales totaled $3.2 billion, accounting for 5.6% of total retails sales, up from 5.1% in August. This excludes Canadians purchasing from foreign e-commerce retailers.  
    
This was a good news report. Nonetheless, rising cases of COVID-19 have led some provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba and BC to tighten restrictions, which includes discouraging non-essential travel. This could put a damper on brick and mortar retail sales as we enter the holiday season, while e-commerce could see another boost. Early estimates provided by Statistics Canada suggest that retail sales were unchanged in October.  

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-retail-sales-sept-november-20-2020

Canadian employment gained 84k jobs in October (0.5%, m/m), following a gain of 378k in September. This is the sixth consecutive month of increases, putting national employment within 636k of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate was little changed at 8.9%, as some provinces reinstated containment measures targeted at restaurants and bars, and recreational facilities. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 3.1% (-598k). 

Regionally, employment increased in five provinces, with the largest gains in BC and Ontario. In BC, employment grew by 33.5k (1.4%, m/m) in October, following a gain of 55k in September. The province is now at 97% of its pre-COVID February employment level. The unemployment rate fell for the fifth consecutive month, down by 0.4 percentage points to 8.0%. Meanwhile, in Vancouver, employment increased by 52k jobs (3.8%, m/m). Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 3.3% (-86K) jobs. 

As expected, employment recovery was slower in October than the jumps we saw earlier on. Gains in industries that were hardest hit reported some backpedaling in October, as a few provinces reinstated containment measures. As COVID-19 cases continue to rise, the path to recovery will be tougher, especially if containment measures in Ontario and Quebec are prolonged, and if other provinces/territories decide to follow suit.

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea/canadian-employment-oct-november-6-2020

Canadian inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in September year-over-year, up from the previous month's increase of 0.1%. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose by 1.0%. Prices rose in six of eight components year-over-year with notable increases in shelter (1.7%), food (1.6%), and health/personal care (1.6%), while prices declined for clothing/footwear (-4.1%) and recreation (-1.2%). Growth in the Bank of Canada's three measures of trend inflation was flat in September, averaging 1.7%. 

Regionally, the CPI was positive in seven provinces. In BC, CPI rose by 0.4% in September year-over-year, up from August's increase of 0.2%. Prices continued to rise for health/personal care (3.1%), shelter (1.6%), food (1.4%), and alcohol/tobacco/cannabis (1.3%). In contrast, downward price pressures were ongoing in gas (-13.4%), clothing/footwear (-3.5%), and recreation (-2.9%). 

As some provinces such as Ontario and Quebec have reinstated stricter containment measures, Canadian inflation is expected to continue to be weak. In this environment, the Bank of Canada will continue to keep interest rates low. 

Link: https://mailchi.mp/bcrea.bc.ca/canadian-inflation-sept-october-21-2020

Canadian employment gained 378.2k jobs in September (2.1%, m/m), following a gain of 245.8k in August. This is the fifth consecutive month of increases, putting national employment within 719.5k of its pre-COVID February level. The national unemployment rate fell by 1.2 percentage points to 9% from the previous month. Gains in the services-producing sector were driven by accommodation/food, educational services, and information/culture/recreation, while manufacturing led the increase in the goods-producing sector. Compared to the same month last year, Canadian employment was down by 3.6% (-685k). 

Regionally, employment increased in all provinces except in New Brunswick and PEI, with the largest gains in Ontario and Quebec. In BC, employment grew by 54.8k (2.3%, m/m) in September, surpassing the 15.3k gain in August. The province is now at 96% of its pre-COVID February employment level. September's gain brought down BC's unemployment rate by 2.3 percentage points to 8.4%. In Vancouver, employment increased by 35,000 jobs, contrasting the 2.3k jobs lost in August. Compared to one year ago, employment in BC was down by 4.2% (-106K) jobs. 

We've come a long way since the loss of 3 million jobs in April. But as the economy continues to recover and adapt to the impacts of the global pandemic, some industries will continue to face a longer path to recovery than others.  

Canadian housing starts decreased by 20% m/m to 208,980 units in September at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), following a strong gain of almost 262,000 units in August. This is the first decline after four consecutive months of increases, which was driven by declines in the multi-unit segment in Ontario and BC. The decline was broad-based, where starts were down in 8 provinces. September's still healthy number increased the six-month average to 214,647 units SAAR.  

In BC, housing starts decreased by 25% m/m to 32,279 units SAAR in September, following a robust increase of 43,322 in August. This rounded out the third quarter average to 38,662 units SAAR. In the near term, we can expect housing activity to continue to be supported by strong demand and historically low borrowing rates. Meanwhile, the value of residential building permits was down in August by 19%. Compared to the same time last year, housing starts were down by 22%.  

Looking at census metropolitan areas in BC: 

Housing starts in Vancouver were down by 28% m/m to 21,478 units SAAR in September, following last month's healthy showing of 29,714 units SAAR. Starts were down in both multi-units (-29%) and singles (-14%). Compared to last year, housing starts were down by 14%.  

In Victoria, housing starts were down by 15% m/m to 2,324 units SAAR. Compared to a year ago in September, housing starts were down by 61%.  

In Kelowna, housing starts decreased by 60% m/m to 1,052 units SAAR. Starts were down by 31% in the region compared to the same time last year. 

Monthly housing starts in Abbotsford-Mission were down by 25% at 1,074 units SAAR. Compared to the same time last year, new home construction was down by 48%.